Americans shrugged off economic worries and opened their wallets during the 2025 holiday shopping season. November retail sales exceeded expectations, signaling that momentum remained strong heading into year-end. According to the Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.6% month over month to $735.9 billion, a sharp rebound from October's revised 0.1% decline, driven by a notable increase in motor vehicle purchases and broader discretionary spending.

The data, released by the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau after a delay of more than a month due to the federal government shutdown, underscores the resilience of household spending. Despite growing concerns about a cooling labor market and uncertainty over economic policy, consumers continued to spend at a solid pace.

While consumer sentiment has softened, shaped in part by policy debates and employment trends, actual spending behavior tells a more constructive story. The November rebound suggests that growth remained on a firm footing. Economists expect growth to reaccelerate in 2026, especially as tax refunds reach households, which could reinforce consumer spending and create a tailwind for retailers such as Dollar General Corporation (DG Quick QuoteDG - Free Report) , American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO Quick QuoteAEO - Free Report) , The Gap, Inc. (GAP Quick QuoteGAP - Free Report) and Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA Quick QuoteULTA - Free Report) .

Breaking Down Retail Sales Numbers

Sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers saw a month-on-month increase of 1%. Building material, garden equipment & supplies dealers experienced a 1.3% rise.

Sales at food & beverage stores and clothing & clothing accessories stores witnessed 0.1% and 0.9% increases, respectively. Sales at health & personal care stores rose 0.3%. Sales at sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments & bookstores jumped 1.9%.

Food services & drinking places experienced a 0.6% increase in sales, while miscellaneous stores registered growth of 1.7%. Non-store retailers, primarily online, reported a 0.4% jump, while receipts at gasoline stations increased 1.4%. 

On the contrary, furniture & home furnishing stores experienced a 0.1% decline. Sales at general merchandise stores and electronics & appliance outlets remained flat sequentially.

Past-Year Stock Price Performance of DG, AEO, GAP & ULTA

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4 Prominent Stocks

Dollar General: Remodel Strategy Strengthens Growth Outlook

Dollar General continues to solidify its market-leading position through a combination of extreme value and unmatched convenience in rural America. The company’s bullish case is anchored by sustained market share gains across both consumable and non-consumable categories, driven by a broadening appeal to higher-income households and improved operational execution. Strategic real estate initiatives, particularly the large-scale "Project Elevate" and "Project Renovate" remodels, are delivering measurable sales lifts and enhanced customer satisfaction, while physical expansion continues to target a vast remaining runway of domestic and international opportunities. Furthermore, the rapid scaling of digital capabilities, including robust delivery partnerships and the high-margin DG Media Network, is successfully extending the company's reach and increasing transaction sizes. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year has increased by 9 cents to $6.47 over the past 30 days. For the next fiscal year, the estimate has also moved higher by 12 cents to $7.07 during the same period.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar General’s current and next financial-year sales calls for growth of 4.8% and 4.1%, respectively, from the year-ago period. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.9%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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American Eagle: Revitalizing Brands and Driving Growth

American Eagle is demonstrating a powerful turnaround driven by the exceptional performance of its Aerie and OFFLINE brands, which continue to capture significant market share. The company's strategic pivot toward high-impact marketing campaigns and high-profile collaborations has successfully revitalized brand desirability, leading to accelerated traffic and strong customer acquisition across all digital and physical channels. Operational resilience is evident through a disciplined focus on inventory management, cost efficiencies and a modernized store remodeling program that elevates the overall shopping experience. By leveraging its dominance in core categories like denim while aggressively expanding into lifestyle segments such as activewear and sleep, the company is effectively broadening its reach across diverse consumer cohorts.

Earnings estimates are moving higher. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year has climbed 3 cents to $1.36. For the next fiscal year, the estimate has also risen 9 cents to $1.67 over the same period.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Eagle’s current and next financial-year sales calls for growth of 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively, from the year-ago period. This Zacks Rank #1 company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 35.1%, on average.

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Gap: Brand Reinvigoration Strengthens the Portfolio

Gap is showcasing a powerful operational turnaround boosted by the successful execution of its brand reinvigoration playbook. The company is leveraging high-impact marketing and culturally relevant strategic partnerships, such as the viral "Better in Denim" campaign and designer collaborations, to attract younger demographics while maintaining core customer loyalty. Operational strengths, including a modernized supply chain integrated with AI and automation, are driving significant productivity gains and providing the agility needed to mitigate external headwinds. With a sharpened focus on "must-win" categories like denim, active, and kids and baby, alongside a thoughtful expansion into the beauty sector, the company is effectively broadening its market reach and revenue potential.

Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year has increased by 5 cents to $2.14. The consensus estimate for the next fiscal year has also risen 12 cents to $2.28 over the same timeframe.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gap’s current and next financial-year sales implies growth of 1.8% and 2.4%, respectively, from the year-ago period. This Zacks Rank #1 company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 19.1%, on average.

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Ulta Beauty: Loyalty and Exclusivity Power Beauty Leadership

Ulta Beauty is demonstrating powerful momentum through its "Ulta Beauty Unleashed" strategy, consistently delivering performance that exceeds expectations across all major categories and channels. The company's unique "low-to-luxury" brand assortment is a significant competitive advantage, bolstered by successful exclusive launches and a rapidly expanding K-beauty portfolio that resonates with younger demographics. Strategic initiatives are fueling growth, including the successful launch of a new digital marketplace and aggressive international expansion into Mexico and the Middle East. Furthermore, Ulta is driving operational excellence by modernizing its supply chain with advanced automation and leveraging its record-breaking loyalty program to deepen customer engagement and personalization.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year has increased by 12 cents to $25.52 over the past 30 days. For the next fiscal year, the estimate has also moved higher, rising 11 cents to $28.36 during the same period.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ulta Beauty’s current and next financial-year sales indicates growth of 8.8% and 6%, respectively, from the year-ago period. This Zacks Rank #1 company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.7%, on average.

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